The Next Ten Years of D2C in India: What the Data Supports, Where It Stops, and What to Build Now

No published forecast we could find puts a number on Indian D2C in 2036. The credible ones stop at 2030. This piece sets out what those numbers support, then reasons forward from them, and it labels which is which.

McKinsey's February 2026 report puts India's D2C channel at $10–12 billion in e-commerce sales today and says it could reach $60 billion by 2030, with D2C adoption accelerating nearly three times faster than marketplace growth. Bain and Flipkart see all of Indian e-retail growing from $65–66 billion in 2025 to $170–180 billion by 2030. mckinseybusiness-standard

Our reading is that the D2C brand that matters in 2036 will be defined less by selling on its own website. It will be defined by whether it still owns the customer relationship when the sale happens somewhere else. The rest of this article builds on that idea.

The numbers, and how to read them

Three cautions apply before quoting any of these.

The definitions differ. EMARKETER counts sales through a brand's owned sites, apps and stores and leaves out marketplace storefronts. McKinsey's D2C includes social and app-led selling, with marketplaces and quick commerce counted separately. Bain and McKinsey also slice the market differently, so their channel figures should not be stacked. The US plateau and India's projected growth are not like-for-like. emarketer

Precision is shaky. In 2022, a Shiprocket–CII–Praxis report described D2C as a $12 billion market and pointed to $60 billion by FY27. McKinsey's 2026 report places roughly the same $60 billion at 2030. The methods differ, so this is not a time series. It is still a reason to treat any single D2C number as a range, not a promise. Entrepreneur

The direction is still clear. On our arithmetic from McKinsey's ranges, D2C would move from roughly 13–17% of Indian e-commerce today to 28–33% by 2030. The base years differ by a year, so read that as direction, not precision.

Demand is not the constraint. Gen Z made up 40–45% of Indian e-retail shoppers and half of incremental orders in 2025. Tier-II and smaller cities supplied about half of incremental online orders, even though only 25–30% of their internet users shop online, against 45–50% in metro and Tier-I markets. Tracxn expects 357 million Indian consumers under 30 by 2030. The buyer of the next decade is young, mobile and increasingly outside the metros. business-standardtechnode

Five shifts that will decide who is still standing in 2036

These are GrowInfinite interpretation built on the evidence cited. They are not forecasts.

1. D2C turns from an identity into a channel

EMARKETER notes that nearly every major consumer brand now sells direct, so D2C no longer distinguishes a brand. It complements wider distribution. India is following a similar path with its own twist. Inc42 reports that newer brands are appearing in physical retail first and using e-commerce to scale later. The listed examples vary widely. Credo Brands, the owner of Mufti, listed in December 2023 without ever raising institutional funding. Honasa reached the market in seven years after raising $126 million, while Lenskart took 17 years after raising $981 million. FAQ on direct-to-consumer commerce: How to make D2C profitable in 2026 +3

Even small sellers have not made a one-way choice. McKinsey's survey of more than 1,000 MSMEs found a 53/47 split between preferring D2C and relying on marketplaces, and it expects marketplaces to keep growing. The useful question stops being "D2C or marketplace?" It becomes which shelf serves which customer, and what you keep from each sale. mckinsey

2. Quick commerce becomes a default shelf, with limits

Quick commerce already carries 16–17% of Indian e-commerce GMV and is projected to supply 45–50% of incremental e-retail GMV by 2030. It runs more than 7,000 micro-fulfilment centres across 200 cities, with two-thirds of new capacity in the top ten cities. Essentials still make up 85–90% of its GMV, and it also works as a fulfilment layer for discretionary purchases. business-standard

For a fashion, jewellery or beauty brand, that suggests a shelf that exists mostly in big cities and is built around essentials. We have no sourced benchmark for quick-commerce margins. Each brand should compute contribution margin after every platform charge before scaling there.

3. Capital gets selective, and the exits get wider

Indian D2C funding peaked at $1.6 billion in 2022, fell to $824 million in 2024 and recovered to $898 million in 2025. Late-stage funding dropped from $883 million across 22 rounds in 2022 to $271 million across 15 rounds in 2025. Seed rounds made up 70–77% of all rounds every year. technode

Exits are broadening. Hindustan Unilever bought Minimalist for $350 million in January 2025, and USV India bought Wellbeing Nutrition for $175 million in February 2026. Licious says it intends to reach profitability before a planned 2027–28 IPO. technodetechnode

Our reading is that by 2036 a brand has three realistic paths: self-fund to profit, sell to a strategic buyer, or list. Venture-subsidised growth is the narrowest path. A business built to be acquirable has clean contribution margin by channel, an owned customer list and visible repeat cohorts.

4. Discovery moves into AI and creator feeds, while checkout stays contested

KPMG data cited by EMARKETER shows 28% of Gen Z regularly buy direct from brands, against 13% of the total population. PayPal data shows 61% of Gen Z adults used an AI tool to help with a purchase in the past year. Adobe found AI-sourced traffic to brand sites surging 1,200% between July 2024 and February 2025. That is growth from a small base. Bain notes India is already the world's second-largest ChatGPT market. emarketermedianews4u

The forecasts are large. McKinsey projects agentic commerce could orchestrate $900 billion to $1 trillion of US B2C retail revenue by 2030, and $3–5 trillion globally. It also says the pace and extent of adoption remain unclear. mckinsey

The first real test went poorly. OpenAI moved away from native checkout in ChatGPT in March 2026. Purchases now complete through retailers' own apps or online stores. Reports said people research products in ChatGPT but don't finish purchases there, and only about a dozen Shopify merchants had integrated. retail-insight-networktechround

India's payments rail is moving in parallel. Reuters reported in September 2026 that NPCI had built a Unified Agent Protocol letting AI agents pay on UPI without per-transaction approval, with spending limits, identity checks and audit trails. The liability framework for a rogue agent transaction had not been made public. At Global Fintech Fest the protocol was described as coming later in the event. I could not confirm how it ultimately launched. startupfortunemedianama

Our reading is that discovery will fragment across assistants, creators and search. The brand that keeps checkout and the customer record on its own surface keeps the relationship. The practical step today is machine-readable catalogue data, not rebuilding checkout. EMARKETER says structured data, rich product descriptions and reviews increasingly decide whether a brand appears in AI-generated answers. emarketer

5. Consented first-party data becomes both the moat and a legal duty

India's DPDP Rules were notified in November 2025. Consent manager registration opens around November 2026, and substantive obligations on data fiduciaries apply by 13 May 2027. EMARKETER ties D2C's lasting value to first-party data as third-party cookies become less reliable. privybyidfyemarketer

A customer list collected with clean, revocable consent that you can activate on WhatsApp, email or an app is an asset. A list with murky origins is a liability. We are not lawyers, so confirm scope and timelines with counsel.

The global picture: a plateau, a runway and a parcel problem

The US plateau is a warning about growth, not about D2C itself. EMARKETER attributes the slowdown to costlier targeted advertising after Apple's App Tracking Transparency, competition from established brands, the end of cheap venture capital and weak margins at digitally native brands. Allbirds' revenue fell from $297.8 million in 2022 to $189.8 million in 2024, and it has since added Amazon, REI, Nordstrom and Dick's Sporting Goods. Casper was acquired in October 2024. EMARKETER forecast in 2024 that digitally native brands would account for less than 20% of US D2C ecommerce sales by 2026. US D2C did not die. Incumbents captured most of it. emarketeremarketer

India's runway is long but not unlimited. E-retail is 1.6% of India's GDP, against 13–14% in China and 4–4.5% in Indonesia. Bain also notes that retail as a whole is heading to $1.6 trillion by 2030, so offline infrastructure stays critical. Expect omnichannel to become the norm, as it did in the US. business-standard

Cross-border D2C by parcel is now a landed-cost game. The US ended its duty-free de minimis exemption for all countries on 29 August 2025. Amazon and Walmart run US fulfilment programmes that let overseas businesses ship in bulk and store stock before dispatch. Trade rules have kept changing, so verify current duties before pricing. Our reading is that "export D2C" in 2036 means local inventory or local fulfilment, not parcel arbitrage. CNBCCNBC

Why a 10-year view changes what a brand must be (hypothetical example)

This is an illustration, not a forecast. We have no sourced India-wide CAC growth rate.

Assume a brand with ₹1,000 of net revenue per order and ₹480 of contribution per order before marketing, after product cost, fulfilment, payment fees and returns. Paid CAC is ₹550, so the first order loses ₹70. A repeat order triggered by WhatsApp or email costs about ₹15, so it earns about ₹465. The brand breaks even at 0.15 repeat orders per acquired customer.

Now let contribution per order grow 5% a year for ten years and test three CAC paths.

The table ignores discounting, discounted repeat orders and payback timing. The pattern still holds: if acquisition cost compounds faster than contribution per order, the repeat requirement balloons. Ten years of that gap pushes the break-even from 0.15 to 0.85 repeat orders per customer, almost six times higher. A smarter ad account does not fix that. Retention, owned channels and shelves with different acquisition economics do.

What we would build between now and 2028

1. Compute contribution margin by channel: your site, each marketplace, quick commerce and any offline. Use the real figures after platform fees, returns, RTO and discounts.
2. Set a repeat-order target with the break-even logic above, using your own numbers.
3. Collect consented first-party data at every touchpoint where it is legitimate, and plan the DPDP work now.
4. Make product data machine-readable with structured data, rich descriptions and genuine reviews. Don't rebuild checkout for AI agents yet.
5. Add shelves one at a time, each with a contribution-margin threshold you must clear before scaling it.
6. Keep the books acquirable, with margin by channel and cohort-level repeat behaviour.

What would change our view

• D2C's share of Indian e-commerce stalls while marketplaces absorb the growth. Watch the next McKinsey and Bain updates.
• AI assistants complete a meaningful share of Indian purchases natively. Watch the Unified Agent Protocol rollout and its liability rules.
• Quick-commerce fees turn discretionary categories unprofitable. Check this against your own channel margins.
• DPDP enforcement turns out much stricter or looser than expected.

Where to start

If you can't say today what contribution margin each of your channels earns, you can't decide which of the shifts above applies to you. A growth audit is the diagnostic step. Book a free discovery call with GrowInfinite, or read how our brand growth consultation works.

D. FAQ

Is it too late to start a D2C brand in India?

The data doesn't say so. E-retail penetration is low, and seed rounds still make up most deal volume. The economics are less forgiving than in 2021, though. Plan for channel margin and repeat orders from day one, and don't count on a subsidised growth phase. technode

Should a small D2C brand list on quick commerce?

It depends on category and city. Quick commerce is mostly essentials and concentrated in top-city capacity. Test a narrow assortment, compute margin after platform charges, and scale only if it clears your threshold. business-standard

Does the DPDP Act matter to a small D2C store?

If you collect customers' names, numbers or addresses digitally, assume it's relevant. The main obligations apply by May 2027. Ask a lawyer how it applies to your size and data flows. privybyidfy

E. Internal Linking

F. Sources / References

1. McKinsey & Company, "The great unbundling of Indian e-commerce: MSMEs and the direct-to-consumer revolution" (Feb 20, 2026): https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/logistics/our-insights/the-great-unbundling-of-indian-e-commerce-msmes-and-the-direct-to-consumer-revolution
2. Business Standard, "India's e-retail market hits $66 billion as growth reaccelerates," covering Bain & Company–Flipkart How India Shops Online 2026 (Apr 9, 2026): https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/india-s-e-retail-market-hits-66-billion-as-growth-reaccelerates-126040901077_1.html
3. MediaNews4U, coverage of the Bain–Flipkart report: https://www.medianews4u.com/indias-e-retail-gmv-crosses-65b-in-2025-set-for-20-growth-and-q-commerce-surge-by-2030-bain-company-x-flipkart-report/
4. TNGlobal, coverage of Tracxn's India D2C report (Aug 26, 2026): https://technode.global/2026/08/26/indian-d2c-companies-raised-6b-in-equity-funding-across-2000-rounds-between-2021-and-2026-tracxn/
5. CIOL, "India's D2C Market Is Moving Beyond the Fundraising Phase": https://www.ciol.com/startups/indias-d2c-market-is-moving-beyond-the-fundraising-phase-12443278
6. EMARKETER, "FAQ on direct-to-consumer commerce: How to make D2C profitable in 2026" (Feb 12, 2026): https://www.emarketer.com/content/faq-on-direct-to-consumer-commerce-how-make-d2c-profitable-2026
7. EMARKETER, "3 reasons why D2C's share of ecommerce sales is plateauing": https://www.emarketer.com/content/why-d2c-share-of-ecommerce-sales-plateauing
8. McKinsey & Company, "The agentic commerce opportunity" (Oct 17, 2025): https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-agentic-commerce-opportunity-how-ai-agents-are-ushering-in-a-new-era-for-consumers-and-merchants
9. Retail Insight Network, "OpenAI shifts ChatGPT shopping plans to retailer-run apps" (Mar 23, 2026): https://www.retail-insight-network.com/news/openai-shifts-chatgpt-shopping-plans-to-retailer-run-apps-report/
10. TechRound, "OpenAI Scales Back On Instant Checkout Feature" (Mar 17, 2026): https://techround.co.uk/news/%E2%81%A0openai-scales-instant-checkout-feature-commerce/
11. Startup Fortune, "India's NPCI Is Building a Protocol to Let AI Agents Pay on UPI": https://startupfortune.com/indias-npci-is-building-a-protocol-to-let-ai-agents-pay-on-upi/
12. Medianama, "Top Products Launched at Global Fintech Fest 2026": https://www.medianama.com/2026/09/223-agentic-ai-products-fintechs-gff-2026/
13. Privy by IDfy, "DPDP Compliance Guide 2026": https://www.privybyidfy.com/blog/dpdp-compliance-guide-2026-what-indian-enterprises-must-do-before-may-2027
14. CNBC, "Retail panic: What the end of the 'de minimis' exemption means for brands across the globe" (Aug 29, 2025): https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/retail-impact-de-minimis-exemption-ends-globally.html
15. Entrepreneur India, "India's D2C to Become a $60 Billion Industry by FY27: Report" (Jun 30, 2022): https://india.entrepreneur.com/business-news/indias-d2c-to-become-a-60-billion-industry-by-fy27-report/430523
16. Inc42, "Beyond Easy Growth: How Indian Ecommerce Will Be Tested In 2026?": https://inc42.com/features/beyond-easy-growth-key-indian-ecommerce-trends-for-2026/
17. GrowInfinite, Home and About pages (service URLs, positioning): https://www.growinfinite.net/home